The 30 year fixed jumped to 6.95 percent, the highest weekly average since January 2025, and a week added $120 a month to the payment on a median Warren home
The 30 year fixed hit 6.95 percent on September 17, up 19 basis points in a week. At Warren's $1,180,000 median that is $6,249 a month, $120 more than last week.
Freddie Mac put the 30 year fixed at 6.95 percent on Thursday, September 17, 2026, up from 6.76 percent a week earlier and 6.26 percent a year ago. It is the highest weekly average since January 30, 2025 and the largest one week increase since April 2025. The survey week closed the evening the Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, its first increase since July 2023. At Warren Township's twelve month median sale price of $1,180,000, with 20 percent down on a 30 year fixed, principal and interest is $6,249 a month. That is $120 more than last week and $825 more than a year ago, and for the first time in this series the rate, not the price, explains most of the year over year increase.
Three weeks ago the story here was that the rate was the number sitting still while Warren prices did the moving. That is no longer true. Since the August 27 survey the 30 year fixed has climbed 29 basis points, 19 of them in the last seven days.
What Freddie Mac reported this week
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey released Thursday, September 17, 2026 put the 30 year fixed at 6.95 percent and the 15 year fixed at 6.26 percent. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in the release that "the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continues to fluctuate as markets assess economic data."
| Survey average | This week | Last week | A year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 year fixed | 6.95% | 6.76% | 6.26% |
| 15 year fixed | 6.26% | 6.09% | 5.41% |
The 15 year fixed is now at 6.26 percent, exactly where the 30 year fixed stood a year ago. It has risen 85 basis points in twelve months against 69 for the 30 year.
The survey week runs from Thursday through the following Wednesday, so this reading covers the seven days from September 10 through September 16 and was finished the night the Fed announced. The survey tracks conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers with excellent credit putting 20 percent down. It is an average of application rates, not a quote, and it says nothing about jumbo loans, which matter a great deal in Warren, where nearly half of the past year's sales closed above the county's conforming limit. More on that below.
The Fed raised the day the survey week ended
On Wednesday, September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. The vote was 12 to 0. The statement said that "inflation remains elevated" and that "today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal." The Fed's own record of target range changes shows it is the first increase since July 2023. Between those two dates the committee cut three times, on September 18, October 30 and December 11 of 2025, and had held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since.
The federal funds rate is an overnight rate between banks. It is not the rate a mortgage is priced from, and the timing here shows that. The 30 year fixed had already climbed from its low of 5.98 percent on February 26 to 6.76 percent on September 10, a rise of 78 basis points, before the Fed moved at all. Whether this week's 19 basis point jump reflects the decision itself, the expectation of it, or the data the committee cited is not something the survey can tell you, and I am not going to guess.
Where 6.95 percent sits in the record
| Date | 30 year fixed | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| January 16, 2025 | 7.04% | The last weekly average above 7 percent |
| January 30, 2025 | 6.95% | The last reading at this level before this week |
| September 18, 2025 | 6.26% | A year ago |
| February 26, 2026 | 5.98% | The low of the past twelve months |
| September 10, 2026 | 6.76% | Last week |
| September 17, 2026 | 6.95% | This week |
Measured against the archive, this week's average is 69 basis points above a year ago, 97 basis points above the February low, and equal to the January 30, 2025 reading, which was the last time the survey printed 6.95 percent or higher. The 19 basis point weekly move is the largest one week increase since April 17, 2025, when the average rose 21 basis points to 6.83 percent.
What it costs at Warren's median
Here is the same purchase priced twice, a year apart. Both rows use 20 percent down, a 30 year fixed at the survey average for that week, and principal and interest only. Taxes, insurance and any association fee sit on top of these figures, and in Warren the tax line alone is large.
| Window | Median sale price | Loan at 20% down | Survey rate | Monthly P and I |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2024 to September 2025 | $1,100,000 | $880,000 | 6.26% | $5,424 |
| September 2025 to September 2026 | $1,180,000 | $944,000 | 6.95% | $6,249 |
| Change | +$80,000 | +$64,000 | +69 bp | +$825 |
The medians come from Garden State MLS closed sales for Warren Township in the twelve months ending September 18 of each year, 173 sales in the current window and 175 in the prior one, with sales under $200,000 excluded as likely non arms length. The payment at the median is up 15.2 percent in a year. The price is up 7.3 percent. The rate accounts for the rest.
The one week move is easier to feel. On the same $944,000 loan, last week's 6.76 percent produced a payment of $6,129. This week's 6.95 percent produces $6,249. That is $120 a month, about $1,440 a year, added between one Thursday and the next with no change in the price of the house.
The split has flipped
On August 30, using the August 27 survey, I split Warren's year over year payment increase into the part caused by price and the part caused by rate. Price produced 87 percent of a $469 increase. Rerun with this week's numbers, the same method gives a very different answer.
Price the current $1,180,000 median at last year's 6.26 percent and the payment is $5,819. Against last year's $5,424 that is $394 attributable to price alone. Adding the 69 basis points takes it from $5,819 to $6,249, which is $430 attributable to the rate.
| Source of the increase | Per month | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Median price, $1,100,000 to $1,180,000 | $394 | 47.8% |
| Rate, 6.26% to 6.95% | $430 | 52.2% |
| Total | $825 | 100% |
The two parts are rounded separately, which is why they add to $824 rather than $825. Three weeks ago the rate was responsible for $62 of the increase. It is now responsible for $430, and it has become the larger of the two causes.
| Rate on a $944,000 loan | Monthly P and I | Against this week |
|---|---|---|
| 5.98% (February 26 low) | $5,648 | -$601 |
| 6.26% (a year ago) | $5,819 | -$430 |
| 6.50% | $5,967 | -$282 |
| 6.76% (last week) | $6,129 | -$120 |
| 6.95% (this week) | $6,249 | 0 |
| 7.25% | $6,440 | +$191 |
| 7.50% | $6,601 | +$352 |
A buyer who agreed on a $1,180,000 house in February and closed at that week's average is paying $601 a month less than a buyer doing the same thing at this week's average, on an identical loan. Over the first year that gap is a little over $7,200.
The survey does not describe half of this market
Freddie Mac's survey tracks conforming loans. FHFA's 2026 one unit conforming limit for Somerset County is $1,209,750, held at its 2025 level, below the $1,249,125 national ceiling that applies in the most expensive counties. Of Warren's 173 closings at $200,000 and above in the twelve months ending September 18, 81 sold above the county limit, 46.8 percent. Forty one, 23.7 percent, sold above $1,512,188, the price at which a full 20 percent down payment still leaves a loan larger than the limit. Those buyers price against jumbo terms, which each lender sets on its own and which are not in this survey at all. The full breakdown is in where jumbo actually starts in Warren.
| Sale price band, 12 months to Sept 18, 2026 | Closings | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Under $832,750, the 2026 baseline limit | 42 | 24.3% |
| $832,750 to $1,209,749 | 50 | 28.9% |
| $1,209,750 to $1,512,187 | 40 | 23.1% |
| $1,512,188 and above | 41 | 23.7% |
| Total | 173 | 100% |
The $944,000 loan used throughout this post does conform in Somerset County, so the survey rate is a fair yardstick for the median purchase. It stops being one somewhere above $1.5 million.
One more Warren number belongs next to this. In the twelve months ending September 16, 24.4 percent of Warren sales were all cash, down from 34.5 percent the year before. Three in four Warren buyers now finance, more than a year ago, and every one of them prices off a number that just moved 19 basis points in a week.
Principal and interest only, 30 year fixed, 20 percent down, no points, no mortgage insurance, no taxes, no insurance, no association fee. Rates are the Freddie Mac weekly survey averages for the stated week and are national averages of application rates on conforming loans, not quotes. Your own rate depends on credit, loan size, property type and lender, and I asked no lender for a quote for this post. Warren prices are the median closed sale price for all residential property types in Garden State MLS over the stated twelve month window, with sales under $200,000 excluded as likely non arms length. Dollar figures are rounded to the nearest dollar.
These figures cover every residential property type in the MLS, including townhouses and condominiums, not detached houses alone. Attached product sells below detached in Warren, so a detached only median would run higher, and so would every payment computed from it.
What I could not verify
Freddie Mac publishes no jumbo series in this survey, so there is no primary source here for what a Warren buyer above $1.5 million was quoted this week or last September. Everything above the conforming line in this post is counted, not priced. The Garden State MLS record does not carry loan amounts or down payments, so the 20 percent down assumption is a convention for comparison, not an observation of how these 173 buyers financed.
I could not reopen the FHFA county file for this piece. The $1,209,750 Somerset County limit is the figure read from that file for the August 21 post and confirmed in its August 24 correction, and two lender published county tables I checked this week list the same number. The Fed's statement records the vote as 12 to 0 and I have relied on that.
Author's opinion
This section is my read, kept separate from the record above. A 19 basis point week is unusual, and I understand why it gets attention. But the useful comparison for a Warren buyer is not this week against last week. It is this week against the price you are about to agree to. At the median, the rate move of the past year costs $430 a month and the price move costs $394. One of those you can change later by refinancing if rates fall, which I have no view on and will not predict. The other is fixed the day you close. Spend your attention accordingly. Related reading: the Warren market page, Warren by the Numbers and the rate math post from August 19.
Rates in this post are the published weekly averages as of September 17, 2026 and change weekly. Check the current survey before doing your own math.
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 17, 2026. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
- Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates Average 6.95%, news release, September 17, 2026. https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-695
- Freddie Mac, PMMS archive, 2026 weekly results. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/archive?year=2026
- Freddie Mac, PMMS archive, 2025 weekly results. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/archive?year=2025
- Freddie Mac, About PMMS, survey week and loan coverage. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/about-pmms
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
- Federal Reserve, Implementation Note, September 16, 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm
- Federal Reserve, Open Market Operations, history of target range changes. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
- FHFA, Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2026, news release, November 25, 2025. https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-announces-conforming-loan-limit-values-for-2026
- FHFA, 2026 county loan limit file. https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/cll/fullcountyloanlimitlist2026_hera-based_final_flat.pdf
- Garden State MLS, Warren Township closed sales, September 19, 2025 to September 18, 2026 and the prior twelve months. https://www.gsmls.com
- Warren, Local., rates moved 10 basis points in a year, August 30, 2026. https://blog.johnmangini.com/rates-flat-warren-payment-up/
- Warren, Local., where jumbo starts in Warren, August 21, 2026. https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-conforming-loan-ceiling/
- Warren, Local., one in four Warren sales was all cash, September 16, 2026. https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-cash-buyers-retreat/
John Mangini
Broker / Owner, NextHome Premier
Warren Township resident and full time broker, licensed in New Jersey since 2002. Warren, Local. is written from live Garden State MLS data, township records and primary sources. Every figure is traceable to a source listed above.
