The 30 year fixed fell to 7.32 percent after seven increases and a flat week, and the payment on a median Warren home eased $52
Rates fell to 7.32% on Oct 22. At Warren's $1,182,500 median, P and I is $6,498, $52 less than last week and $1,114 more than a year ago.
Freddie Mac put the 30 year fixed at 7.32 percent on Thursday, October 22, 2026, down from 7.40 percent a week earlier and up from 6.19 percent a year ago. It is the first weekly decline after seven straight increases and a flat week. At Warren Township's twelve month median sale price of $1,182,500, with 20 percent down on a 30 year fixed, principal and interest is $6,498 a month. That is $52 less than at last week's rate, $425 more than on August 20, and $1,114 more than the same purchase a year ago.
Last week's post covered the pause at 7.40 percent and the 28 contracts Warren buyers signed while the rate climbed. This week the survey moved down for the first time since the run began. Eight basis points is a small move. It takes back about a ninth of what the run added, and this post does not treat one week as a turn.
What Freddie Mac reported this week
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey released Thursday, October 22, 2026 put the 30 year fixed at 7.32 percent and the 15 year fixed at 6.68 percent, down 3 basis points. "The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined this week, offering some relief to prospective homebuyers," Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in the release. Freddie Mac said nothing about where rates go next. Neither does this post.
| Survey average | This week | Last week | A year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 year fixed | 7.32% | 7.40% | 6.19% |
| 15 year fixed | 6.68% | 6.71% | 5.44% |
The 30 year is up 113 basis points in a year and the 15 year is up 124. On the $946,000 loan used below, a 15 year at 6.68 percent costs $8,335 a month in principal and interest, $1,836 more than the 30 year, in exchange for retiring the loan in half the time.
The survey tracks conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with good to excellent credit putting 20 percent down on a single family home they will live in. It is an average, not a quote, and it says nothing about jumbo loans, which price separately. That matters in Warren. The 2026 one unit conforming limit for Somerset County is $1,209,750. In the twelve months through October 22, 80 of Warren's 168 closings, 48 percent, sold for more than that, and 38 of them, 23 percent, sold for enough that a 20 percent down loan would itself be jumbo. The August 21 post has the detail.
Ten surveys, one loan
Hold the house still and let only the rate move. On a $946,000 loan, 20 percent down on Warren's current median, here is what each survey since August 20 has produced.
| Survey date | 30 year fixed | Monthly P and I | Change from August 20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 20 | 6.65% | $6,073 | 0 |
| August 27 | 6.66% | $6,079 | +$6 |
| September 3 | 6.71% | $6,111 | +$38 |
| September 10 | 6.76% | $6,142 | +$69 |
| September 17 | 6.95% | $6,262 | +$189 |
| September 24 | 7.03% | $6,313 | +$240 |
| October 1 | 7.28% | $6,473 | +$400 |
| October 8 | 7.40% | $6,550 | +$477 |
| October 15 | 7.40% | $6,550 | +$477 |
| October 22 | 7.32% | $6,498 | +$425 |
The run added 75 basis points and $477 a month to the same loan on the same house. This week took back 8 basis points and $52 a month, or $624 a year. The net since August 20 is 67 basis points and $425 a month, $5,100 a year. At 7.32 percent the average is still above every survey from August 20 through October 1 in the table.
What it costs at Warren's median, a year apart
Both rows use 20 percent down, a 30 year fixed at the survey average for that week, and principal and interest only. Taxes, insurance and any association fee sit on top, and in Warren the tax line alone is large.
| Window | Median sale price | Loan at 20% down | Survey rate | Monthly P and I |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 23, 2024 to October 22, 2025 | $1,100,000 | $880,000 | 6.19% | $5,384 |
| October 23, 2025 to October 22, 2026 | $1,182,500 | $946,000 | 7.32% | $6,498 |
| Change | +$82,500 | +$66,000 | +113 bp | +$1,114 |
The medians come from Garden State MLS closed sales for Warren Township in the twelve months ending October 22 of each year, 168 sales in the current window and 187 in the prior one, with sales under $200,000 excluded as likely non arms length. The price is up 7.5 percent. The payment is up 20.7 percent. Price the current $1,182,500 median at last year's 6.19 percent and the payment is $5,788, so price added $404 and the rate added the other $711. Sixty four percent of the year over year increase is the rate, against 72 percent in last week's post.
The median itself moved. Last week's twelve month window put it at $1,175,000. Rolling the window forward a week added a few higher closings and dropped a few from October 2025, and it now sits at $1,182,500. That is why the August 20 row above reads $6,073 here and $6,034 last week. The rate history did not change, the loan did.
What Warren buyers did through the run
Counting listings that are now sold or under contract by the date they went under contract, here is the same stretch of the fall in each of the last three years.
| Contracts signed | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 21 to October 22 | 27 | 29 | 32 |
| Last four weeks, September 25 to October 22 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| Last week, October 16 to October 22 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Of the August 21 to October 22 total, listed above $1,209,750 | 8 | 13 | 16 |
Two figures point in different directions. Across the full stretch, 2026 is ahead, 32 contracts against 29 and 27. In the last four weeks, with the survey between 7.03 and 7.40 percent, 2026 is behind, 12 against 14 in both earlier years. The gap is two contracts, and counts this small move by one or two as late pendings post, so neither figure is a trend. Half of this year's 32 contracts were on homes listed above the conforming limit, where the Freddie Mac average is not the rate that applies. As of the latest record, 30 Warren homes are listed for sale and 28 are under contract. The Warren market page carries the monthly view.
Payments are principal and interest only, 30 year fixed, 20 percent down, no points, no mortgage insurance, no taxes, no insurance, no association fee. Rates are the Freddie Mac weekly survey averages for the stated week and are national averages on conforming loans, not quotes. Your own rate depends on credit, loan size, property type and lender, and I asked no lender for a quote for this post. Warren prices are the median closed sale price for all residential property types in Garden State MLS over the stated twelve month window, with sales under $200,000 excluded. Contracts are counted by the MLS pending date on listings that are now sold or under contract, all residential property types, and the conforming limit split uses the list price. Dollar figures are rounded to the nearest dollar.
These figures cover every residential property type in the MLS, including townhouses and condominiums, not detached houses alone. Attached product sells below detached in Warren, so a detached only median would run higher, and so would every payment computed from it. The September 2 post has the split.
What I could not verify
Freddie Mac publishes no jumbo series in the weekly survey, so what a Warren buyer above the conforming limit is paying this week is not in this post, and I asked no lender. I did not review the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly applications release for this post, so national application volume is not reported here. FHFA's national release gives a 2026 high cost ceiling of $1,249,125, while the county tables I checked list $1,209,750 for Somerset County, unchanged from 2025. I could not open FHFA's own county file to confirm the Somerset figure, so treat the conforming limit split as resting on those county tables. The contract counts leave out any deal that was signed and then fell apart, so the true number of contracts signed is at least as high as shown. The most recent closing in the record is October 22, 2026, and late reported closings and pending dates can move these counts by one or two.
This post does not predict where the rate goes next, and nothing in it is a recommendation about when to borrow. The permanent pages hold the wider context: Warren by the Numbers, the Warren Housing Index and how the figures are built.
- Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates Decrease to 7.32%, October 22, 2026. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/22/3386709/0/en/mortgage-rates-decrease-to-7-32.html
- Freddie Mac, the same release on its investor site. https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-decrease-732
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, current results and survey definition. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
- Freddie Mac, PMMS historical weekly data, used for the August 20 to October 15, 2026 weekly series. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/docs/historicalweeklydata.xlsx
- FHFA, Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2026, news release. https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-announces-conforming-loan-limit-values-for-2026
- HSH, 2026 conforming loan limits for New Jersey, Somerset County row. https://www.hsh.com/ls-nj.html
- Garden State MLS, Warren Township closed sales, October 23, 2025 to October 22, 2026 and the prior twelve months, pending dates August 21 to October 22 in 2024, 2025 and 2026, and current active and under contract listings. https://www.gsmls.com
- Warren, Local., the 30 year fixed held at 7.40 percent, October 16, 2026. https://blog.johnmangini.com/rates-hold-7-40-warren-contracts/
- Warren, Local., where jumbo starts in Warren, August 21, 2026. https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-conforming-loan-ceiling/
- Warren, Local., data and methodology. https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-data-and-methodology/
John Mangini
Broker / Owner, NextHome Premier
Warren Township resident and full time broker, licensed in New Jersey since 2002. Warren, Local. is written from live Garden State MLS data, township records and primary sources. Every figure is traceable to a source listed above.
