The 30 year fixed held at 7.40 percent after seven straight increases, and Warren buyers signed 28 contracts while it climbed
The 30 year fixed held at 7.40 percent on October 15. At Warren's $1,175,000 median that is $6,508 a month, and buyers signed 28 contracts during the climb.
Freddie Mac put the 30 year fixed at 7.40 percent on Thursday, October 15, 2026, unchanged from a week earlier and up from 6.27 percent a year ago. It ends a run of seven straight weekly increases that began after August 20, when the survey printed 6.65 percent. At Warren Township's twelve month median sale price of $1,175,000, with 20 percent down on a 30 year fixed, principal and interest is $6,508 a month. That is $474 more than on August 20 and $989 more than the same purchase a year ago. Over the same eight weeks of rising rates, Warren buyers signed 28 contracts, against 25 in the same weeks of 2025 and 24 in 2024.
Last week's post covered the seventh increase in a row and the highest weekly average since November 2023. This week the survey did not move. A flat week is not a turn, and this post does not read one into it. What the pause does allow is a look back at the eight weeks the rate spent climbing, and at what Warren buyers did while it climbed.
What Freddie Mac reported this week
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey released Thursday, October 15, 2026 put the 30 year fixed at 7.40 percent, unchanged, and the 15 year fixed at 6.71 percent, down 2 basis points. "The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained unchanged this week," Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in the release. Freddie Mac said nothing about where rates go next. Neither does this post.
| Survey average | This week | Last week | A year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 year fixed | 7.40% | 7.40% | 6.27% |
| 15 year fixed | 6.71% | 6.73% | 5.52% |
The 30 year is up 113 basis points in a year and the 15 year is up 119. On the $940,000 loan used below, a 15 year at 6.71 percent costs $8,297 a month in principal and interest, $1,789 more than the 30 year, in exchange for retiring the loan in half the time.
The survey tracks conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with good to excellent credit putting 20 percent down on a single family home they will live in. It is an average, not a quote, and it says nothing about jumbo loans, which price separately. That matters in Warren. Somerset County's 2026 conforming limit is $1,209,750. In the twelve months through October 15, 78 of Warren's 169 closings, 46 percent, sold for more than that, and 37 of them, 22 percent, sold for enough that a 20 percent down loan would itself be jumbo. The August 21 post has the detail.
Eight weeks, one loan
Hold the house still and let only the rate move. On a $940,000 loan, 20 percent down on Warren's current median, here is what each survey since August 20 has produced.
| Survey date | 30 year fixed | Monthly P and I | Change from August 20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 20 | 6.65% | $6,034 | 0 |
| August 27 | 6.66% | $6,041 | +$7 |
| September 3 | 6.71% | $6,072 | +$38 |
| September 10 | 6.76% | $6,103 | +$69 |
| September 17 | 6.95% | $6,222 | +$188 |
| September 24 | 7.03% | $6,273 | +$239 |
| October 1 | 7.28% | $6,432 | +$398 |
| October 8 | 7.40% | $6,508 | +$474 |
| October 15 | 7.40% | $6,508 | +$474 |
The run added 75 basis points and $474 a month, or $5,688 a year, to the same loan on the same house. This week added nothing. The 7.40 percent average is still the highest so far in 2026 and the highest since November 16, 2023, when it was 7.44 percent.
What it costs at Warren's median, a year apart
Both rows use 20 percent down, a 30 year fixed at the survey average for that week, and principal and interest only. Taxes, insurance and any association fee sit on top, and in Warren the tax line alone is large.
| Window | Median sale price | Loan at 20% down | Survey rate | Monthly P and I |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 16, 2024 to October 15, 2025 | $1,118,000 | $894,400 | 6.27% | $5,519 |
| October 16, 2025 to October 15, 2026 | $1,175,000 | $940,000 | 7.40% | $6,508 |
| Change | +$57,000 | +$45,600 | +113 bp | +$989 |
The medians come from Garden State MLS closed sales for Warren Township in the twelve months ending October 15 of each year, 169 sales in the current window and 184 in the prior one, with sales under $200,000 excluded as likely non arms length. The price is up 5.1 percent. The payment is up 17.9 percent. Price the current $1,175,000 median at last year's 6.27 percent and the payment is $5,800, so price added $281 and the rate added the other $708. Seventy two percent of the year over year increase is the rate. Last week that share was 64 percent, and on August 30 price explained 87 percent of it.
What Warren buyers did while the rate climbed
The payment math says the rate run made a Warren purchase more expensive. The contract record says it did not stop people from signing. Counting listings that are now sold or under contract by the date they went under contract, here is the same eight week window in each of the last three years.
| August 21 to October 15 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contracts signed, first four weeks, Aug 21 to Sep 17 | 11 | 9 | 14 |
| Contracts signed, last four weeks, Sep 18 to Oct 15 | 13 | 16 | 14 |
| Contracts signed, all eight weeks | 24 | 25 | 28 |
| Of those, listed above the $1,209,750 conforming limit | 8 | 11 | 14 |
| New listings in the window | 33 | 37 | 37 |
Two things stand out. Contract signings in the last four weeks, with the survey between 6.95 and 7.40 percent, matched the first four weeks at 14 each. And half of this year's 28 contracts were on homes listed above the conforming limit, where the Freddie Mac average is not the rate that applies. These are small counts, and three more contracts than last year is not a trend. The record shows that Warren contract activity did not fall during the run. It cannot show why.
This is a different window from the September 23 post, which compared the full third quarter and found contracts down 4 percent. Both can be true. The summer before August 21 was slower this year than last, and the weeks since have not been.
Payments are principal and interest only, 30 year fixed, 20 percent down, no points, no mortgage insurance, no taxes, no insurance, no association fee. Rates are the Freddie Mac weekly survey averages for the stated week and are national averages on conforming loans, not quotes. Your own rate depends on credit, loan size, property type and lender, and I asked no lender for a quote for this post. Warren prices are the median closed sale price for all residential property types in Garden State MLS over the stated twelve month window, with sales under $200,000 excluded. The loan moved from $944,000 in last week's post to $940,000 here because the twelve month median moved from $1,180,000 to $1,175,000 as the window rolled forward a week, so every payment in the weekly table is a few dollars below last week's. Contracts are counted by the MLS pending date on listings that are now sold or under contract, all residential property types, and the conforming limit split uses the list price. Dollar figures are rounded to the nearest dollar.
These figures cover every residential property type in the MLS, including townhouses and condominiums, not detached houses alone. Attached product sells below detached in Warren, so a detached only median would run higher, and so would every payment computed from it. The September 2 post has the split.
What I could not verify
Freddie Mac publishes no jumbo series in the weekly survey, so what a Warren buyer above the conforming limit is paying this week is not in this post, and I asked no lender. I did not review the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly applications release for this post, so national application volume is not reported here. The contract counts leave out any deal that was signed in the window and then fell apart, because those listings went back to active or off the market, so the true number of contracts signed is at least as high as shown. The most recent closing in the record is October 14, 2026, and late reported closings and pending dates can move these counts by one or two.
This post does not predict where the rate goes next, and nothing in it is a recommendation about when to borrow. The permanent pages hold the wider context: the Warren market, Warren by the Numbers and how the figures are built.
- Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 7.40%, October 15, 2026. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/15/3381991/0/en/mortgage-rates-hold-steady-at-7-40.html
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, current results and survey definition. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
- Freddie Mac, PMMS historical weekly data since 1971, used for the August 20 to October 15, 2026 weekly series and the November 16, 2023 comparison. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/docs/historicalweeklydata.xlsx
- Freddie Mac, PMMS archive. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives
- FHFA, Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2026, news release. https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-announces-conforming-loan-limit-values-for-2026
- Garden State MLS, Warren Township closed sales, October 16, 2025 to October 15, 2026 and the prior twelve months, and pending dates August 21 to October 15 in 2024, 2025 and 2026. https://www.gsmls.com
- Warren, Local., the 30 year fixed hit 7.40 percent, October 9, 2026. https://blog.johnmangini.com/rates-7-40-warren-payment/
- Warren, Local., third quarter closings and contracts, September 23, 2026. https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-third-quarter-closings-contracts/
- Warren, Local., where jumbo starts in Warren, August 21, 2026. https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-conforming-loan-ceiling/
- Warren, Local., data and methodology. https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-data-and-methodology/
John Mangini
Broker / Owner, NextHome Premier
Warren Township resident and full time broker, licensed in New Jersey since 2002. Warren, Local. is written from live Garden State MLS data, township records and primary sources. Every figure is traceable to a source listed above.
