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# Warren's closings are down 24 percent this quarter, its contracts are down 4 percent, and 28 sales are waiting to close
- URL: https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-third-quarter-closings-contracts/
- Published: 2026-09-23T10:32:08.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-23T15:21:17.000Z
- Description: 42 Warren closings since July 1 against 55 a year ago, at a $1,302,500 median. Contracts 43 against 45. 28 homes under contract, 15 dated to close by September 30.
- Author: John Mangini
- Tags: Warren Local, Market, market data, gsmls, third quarter, contracts, inventory, #syn-fb, #syn-ig, #syn-li, #syn-gbp, #syn-threads, #syn-nextdoor
AnalysisComputed from Garden State MLS records. Method and sample size are printed with the numbers. [What the labels mean](https://blog.johnmangini.com/editorial-standards/)
The short answer
Forty two homes closed in Warren Township between July 1 and September 23, 2026, against 55 in the same window of 2025 and 52 in 2024, the fewest for the period since 2011 in the Garden State MLS record. The median sale was $1,302,500, up from $1,150,000 a year ago. Contracts did not fall with closings: 43 Warren listings went under contract between July 1 and September 23, against 45 a year earlier, and 28 homes are under contract today, 15 of them carrying anticipated closing dates on or before September 30\. The July shortfall traces to the spring, when 45 contracts were signed in April through June against 69 the year before. September's gap sits in the 15 pending sales dated to close by month end, and the count is not final.
42 vs 55
Closings, July 1 to September 23, 2026 against 2025
$1,302,500
Median sale, July 1 to September 23, 2026, was $1,150,000
43 vs 45
Listings gone under contract, same window, 2026 against 2025
28
Under contract today, 15 dated to close by September 30
## The quarter so far
| Measure | July 1 to Sept 23, 2026 | Same window, 2025 | Same window, 2024 |
| ------------------------------------------ | ----------------------- | ----------------- | ----------------- |
| Closings | 42 | 55 | 52 |
| Median sale price | $1,302,500 | $1,150,000 | $1,285,000 |
| Detached houses closed | 38 | 45 | 48 |
| Detached median | $1,317,000 | $1,188,000 | $1,339,500 |
| Townhouses and condominiums closed | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| Median days on market | 22 | 25 | 23 |
| Median percent of last ask | 99.8 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Closed over ask | 15 of 42 | 25 of 55 | 23 of 52 |
| Dollar volume | $58,121,780 | $66,245,025 | $70,122,060 |
| Listings gone under contract in the window | 43 | 45 | 43 |
The count is down 13 sales, 23.6 percent, and dollar volume is down $8,123,245, 12.3 percent. The median went the other way, up $152,500, or 13.3 percent, and it is the highest for this window in the MLS record, which runs from 2000 in any depth. Part of that is mix. Nine townhouses and condominiums closed in the window last year at a median of $688,000, and four closed this year at a median of $854,000, so attached homes were 16 percent of the window in 2025 and 10 percent in 2026\. Detached houses alone still moved up, from $1,188,000 to $1,317,000, 10.9 percent, but they sit below the $1,339,500 detached median of the same window in 2024\. Forty two sales is a small set, and one closing at the top or the bottom moves the median by tens of thousands of dollars. Read the direction, not the decimals. One 2025 sale and two 2024 sales carry no property type in the record and appear in the totals but not in the detached and attached rows.
At the table, the seller gave up a little of the edge held a year ago. The median sale closed at 99.8 percent of its last asking price, against 100.0 percent in the 2025 window, and 15 of 42 sales closed over ask, 35.7 percent, against 25 of 55, 45.5 percent. The median sale took 22 days to go under contract against 25.
The price per square foot did not follow the median up. On a trailing twelve month basis the median is $401 per square foot on the 115 sales since September 24, 2025 that carry a living area, against $407 on 163 sales in the twelve months before, while the twelve month median price rose from $1,116,000 to $1,180,000\. A higher median on a flat price per foot means larger houses trading, not the same houses fetching more, which is the pattern [the Warren Housing Index (WRNX) showed in August](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-housing-index-flat/). The [index page](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-housing-index/) carries the method.
## Month by month
| Month | Closings 2026 | Closings 2025 | Contracts 2026 | Contracts 2025 | New listings 2026 | New listings 2025 |
| ------------------------- | ------------- | ------------- | -------------- | -------------- | ----------------- | ----------------- |
| January | 22 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| February | 4 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 11 |
| March | 14 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 18 |
| April | 10 | 14 | 15 | 19 | 27 | 30 |
| May | 12 | 14 | 14 | 31 | 19 | 34 |
| June | 14 | 16 | 16 | 19 | 24 | 16 |
| July | 17 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 23 | 23 |
| August | 15 | 15 | 19 | 20 | 11 | 16 |
| September 1 to 23 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 18 |
| January 1 to September 23 | 118 | 125 | 118 | 145 | 161 | 173 |
The contract column is where the quarter was decided. Warren listings went under contract 45 times in April, May and June of 2026 against 69 in the same three months of 2025, and May alone was 14 against 31\. With a median 45 days between the under contract date and the closing table over the past twelve months, a thin May and June show up as a thin July and August. July closed 17 homes against 22\. August matched, 15 and 15\. Since July 1 the contract count has run level with last year, 33 in July and August against 34, and 10 in the first 23 days of September against 11\. The 43 contracts signed since July 1 split 18 that have already closed and 25 that are still pending.
New listings are down as well: 161 came to market between January 1 and September 23 against 173 in 2025, and 50 since July 1 against 57\. Fewer listings, fewer contracts, fewer closings and a higher median is the year in one line. Through September 23 the year stands at 118 closings against 125, the fewest for that window since 2015, at a year to date median of $1,233,000 against $1,175,000\. [The August recap](https://blog.johnmangini.com/august-2026-market-recap/)had the two years tied at the end of August, and the gap since is September's.
## Where September's sales are
Twenty eight Warren homes are under contract at $200,000 or more as of September 23, at a median list price of $1,274,500, and the anticipated closing date each listing carries says where the September count went. Eight of the 28 carry an anticipated date that has already passed, the earliest August 31\. Seven more are dated September 24 to 30\. Seven are dated in October, five in November and one in December. An anticipated closing date is the date the listing office entered when the contract was signed, and closings slip past it for reasons the MLS record never explains, so the 15 dated on or before September 30 are not 15 September closings. They are the reason a ten closing September is not yet a verdict on the month.
The record also fills in late. Of the 109 closings recorded between January 1 and August 31 this year, at least 102 were entered within seven days of the closing date, at least 104 within fourteen, and all 109 within thirty. So the 42 closings counted here through September 23 can still grow by a few as September's last entries arrive, which is why this post compares windows that end on the same day in each year and says so. The cash buyers post last week measured the median contract to closing time at [42 days for cash sales and 45 for financed ones](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-cash-buyers-retreat/). Across all 171 sales in the twelve months to September 23 it is 45.
## The longer record
| Year | Closings, July 1 to Sept 23 | Median sale | Full third quarter | Contracts, July 1 to Sept 23 |
| ---- | --------------------------- | ----------- | ------------------ | ---------------------------- |
| 2011 | 38 | $822,000 | 42 | 29 |
| 2012 | 50 | $767,500 | 56 | 46 |
| 2013 | 66 | $795,000 | 74 | 51 |
| 2014 | 56 | $820,000 | 58 | 42 |
| 2015 | 52 | $717,500 | 56 | 53 |
| 2016 | 61 | $800,000 | 65 | 47 |
| 2017 | 61 | $755,000 | 68 | 49 |
| 2018 | 56 | $875,000 | 61 | 49 |
| 2019 | 56 | $840,000 | 60 | 63 |
| 2020 | 62 | $750,750 | 62 | 65 |
| 2021 | 75 | $890,000 | 81 | 61 |
| 2022 | 61 | $880,000 | 69 | 63 |
| 2023 | 63 | $1,039,500 | 66 | 53 |
| 2024 | 52 | $1,285,000 | 54 | 43 |
| 2025 | 55 | $1,150,000 | 62 | 45 |
| 2026 | 42 | $1,302,500 | 42 so far | 43 |
Forty two is the fewest July 1 to September 23 count since 2011, when 38 closed, and the 2021 peak of 75 is five years back. The count in this window has run 52, 55 and 42 over the last three years against 61 to 63 in 2022 and 2023, and the contracts signed in the window have run 43, 45 and 43 in the same three years against 53 to 65 in every year from 2019 through 2023\. Warren is trading fewer houses than it did, at higher prices, and the third quarter of 2026 is the sharpest version of that so far. The contract column counts listings that later closed or are still under contract, so a contract that fell through and was not followed by a sale is not in it, in any year.
## What is for sale going into the fourth quarter
| Measure | For sale, Sept 23 | Under contract, Sept 23 | Closed, 12 months to Sept 23 |
| ---------------------------------- | ----------------- | ----------------------- | ---------------------------- |
| Homes | 25 | 28 | 171 |
| Median price | $1,795,000 ask | $1,274,500 list | $1,180,000 sold |
| At $2,000,000 and up | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| Under $1,000,000 | 5 | 9 | 75 |
| Townhouses and condominiums | 2 | 4 | 38 |
| Median days on market | 31, to Sept 23 | 36, at contract | 24 |
| Listed or signed since September 1 | 11 listed | 10 signed | 10 closed |
Twenty five Warren homes were listed for sale at $200,000 or more on September 23, at a median asking price of $1,795,000, and 11 of the 25 ask $2,000,000 or more. Six of those 11 are houses built in 2025 or 2026 or not yet built. Five of the 25 ask under $1,000,000, and two are townhouses or condominiums. Eleven of the 25 came on since September 1\. Measured from the list date to September 23, the median listing has been on the market 31 days, the 11 at $2,000,000 and up a median 69 days and the 14 below $2,000,000 a median 20 days.
Set the pending list beside it. The 28 homes under contract carry a median list price of $1,274,500, none above $1,895,000, nine under $1,000,000, four of them townhouses or condominiums. Sixteen homes closed at $2,000,000 or more in the twelve months to September 23, one every three weeks or so, so the 11 listings at that price are about 8 months of supply at the past year's pace. The 14 listings under $2,000,000 sit against 155 closings in the same twelve months, about 1.1 months of supply. Taken together the 25 listings are 1.8 months of supply against 171 closings. [The price bands post](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-price-bands/) in August found the same shape in the closed record, a quick middle and a slow top, and the fall inventory has stacked up at the top.
The count of homes for sale is a live figure and moves week to week. [The homes for sale page](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-nj-homes-for-sale/) and the homepage read from a separate feed that refreshes overnight and counted 27 this morning, two more than the sales record counts as active. Every listing behind these figures is on that page.
## My read
This section is the author's opinion, kept apart from the record above.
I read the quarter as a timing story sitting on top of a volume story. The timing story is the spring: fewer contracts in May meant fewer closings in July, and the 15 pending sales dated for September will land in the record when they land. The volume story is the one that matters more. Three straight third quarters of 43 to 45 contracts, against 53 to 65 in the five years before, is not a lull. It is the size of the Warren market now, and it is why a 42 closing quarter can carry the highest median the window has recorded. Fewer owners list, and the houses that do list below $2,000,000 still draw competing buyers.
For a seller the useful part is the inventory table. Below $2,000,000, 14 active listings against 155 closings in a year is a market with about a month of supply, and the record since July shows the median sale closing at 99.8 percent of its last ask in 22 days. Above $2,000,000, 11 listings, six of them new construction, against 16 sales in a year is a different market, where a listing competes with builders and exposure runs to months. Price matters more there than anywhere else in town, and [the selling guide](https://blog.johnmangini.com/selling-a-home-in-warren/) carries the pricing record for both ends.
The data, and what it does not cover
All figures come from Garden State MLS records for Warren Township, Somerset County, read September 23, 2026, filtered to exclude superseded listing records. The most recent closing in the record is September 22, 2026, which is the last recorded closing and not the date the record was refreshed. Warren Township is in Somerset County and is not Warren County. Sales under $200,000 are excluded throughout as likely non arms length transfers, the floor the selling guide and the market tape apply, which is why the twelve month count here is 171 where [the market page](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-real-estate-market/), which applies no floor and reads a window ending September 21, counts 174\. One home under contract is also below the floor and is left out of the 28\. Windows compared across years end on the same calendar day in each year. A contract is counted on the date the listing was marked under contract in the MLS, for listings that later closed or are still under contract, so a contract that fell through and was not followed by a sale is not counted, and 25 of the 43 contracts signed since July 1 are still pending. An anticipated closing date is the date entered by the listing office and is not a closing. Days on market count the current listing only, and days on market for active listings are counted from the list date to September 23\. Percent of ask compares the sale price with the list price in effect at contract. Price per square foot uses county tax square footage where the parcel record carries it and the MLS approximate figure where it does not, and covers 115 of the 171 sales in the trailing twelve months, so it is a partial measure. Three of the 171 carry no property type and sit in the totals but not in the townhouse row. Medians in an even count are the midpoint of the two middle sales, dollar figures are whole dollars and median days are rounded to whole days. These figures cover every residential property type in the MLS, including townhouses and condominiums, not detached houses alone. Attached product sells below detached in Warren, so a detached only median would run higher.
What I could not verify
Why the spring contract count fell. The MLS record counts contracts and does not say why buyers signed fewer of them in May, and this piece does not match the month against mortgage rates or against listings withdrawn. Whether the eight pending sales whose anticipated dates have passed have closed. They had not been entered as closed on September 23\. Which two listings the homepage feed counts and the sales record does not. And whether any of the 25 pending contracts will fall through, which the record only shows after the fact.
Figures are deemed reliable but are not warranted. Nothing here is a valuation of any particular property.
Sources
1. Garden State MLS records for Warren Township, Somerset County, closed sales, under contract and active listings, read September 23, 2026\. [https://www.gsmls.com](https://www.gsmls.com/?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
2. Warren, Local., the August 2026 market recap, September 9, 2026\.
3. Warren, Local., Warren's price bands, August 20, 2026\.
4. Warren, Local., cash buyers retreat, September 16, 2026, median days from contract to closing.
5. Warren, Local., the Warren Housing Index (WRNX) reading of August 20, 2026\.
6. Warren, Local., the market tape, where the $200,000 floor and the trailing twelve month method are set out.
7. Warren, Local., the Warren real estate market page, updated September 21, 2026, trailing twelve month figures with no price floor.
8. Warren, Local., homes for sale in Warren, the live listing count.
9. Warren, Local., selling a home in Warren, by the numbers.
Warren housing reference
- [Warren by the Numbers](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-by-the-numbers/)
- [The market, updated monthly](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-real-estate-market/)
- [Warren Housing Index](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-housing-index/)
- [Neighborhoods](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-neighborhoods/)
- [Warren vs nearby towns](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-vs-nearby-towns/)
- [Selling in Warren](https://blog.johnmangini.com/selling-a-home-in-warren/)
- [Report Card archive](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-report-card-archive/)
- [Detached vs townhouse](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-detached-vs-townhouse-prices/)
- [Homes for sale in Warren](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-nj-homes-for-sale/)
Thinking about selling a Warren home?
Get a property specific analysis built from the same Warren sales database behind this article.
[Request a Warren home analysis](mailto:john@nexthomepremier.com?subject=Warren%20home%20analysis) or call [732.236.1087](tel:+17322361087)
Start with [what seven years of Warren data says about selling](https://blog.johnmangini.com/selling-a-home-in-warren/).
John Mangini
Broker / Owner, NextHome Premier
[](https://www.nexthomepremier.com/?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
Warren Township resident and full time broker, licensed in New Jersey since 2002\. Warren, Local. is written from live Garden State MLS data, township records and primary sources. Every figure is traceable to a source listed above.
[732.236.1087](tel:+17322361087) [john@nexthomepremier.com](mailto:john@nexthomepremier.com) [102 Town Center Drive, Warren](https://maps.google.com/?q=102+Town+Center+Drive,+Warren,+NJ+07059&ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
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