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# One in four Warren home sales was all cash over the last twelve months, down from one in three, and the pullback is almost entirely in detached houses
- URL: https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-cash-buyers-retreat/
- Published: 2026-09-16T10:21:17.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-16T10:21:18.000Z
- Description: 42 of 172 Warren sales in the twelve months to September 16 were all cash, 24.4 percent, down from 34.5. Detached fell to 20.6 percent, townhouses held at 38.9.
- Author: John Mangini
- Tags: Warren Local, Market, market data, gsmls, cash buyers, financing, #syn-fb, #syn-ig, #syn-li, #syn-gbp, #syn-threads, #syn-nextdoor
AnalysisComputed from Garden State MLS records. Method and sample size are printed with the numbers. [What the labels mean](https://blog.johnmangini.com/editorial-standards/)
The short answer
Forty two of the 172 homes that closed in Warren Township in the twelve months ending September 16, 2026 were bought without a mortgage, 24.4 percent of sales. In the twelve months before that, 61 of 177 sales were cash, 34.5 percent. The pullback is almost entirely in detached houses, where the cash share fell from 33.3 percent to 20.6 percent, while townhouses and condominiums held at 38.9 percent against 39.4 percent. On a calendar year basis the cash share peaked at 36.5 percent in 2024 and stands at 21.9 percent for 2026 through September 16, the lowest reading since 2022, with the caveat that ten 2026 closings carry no financing type in the record.
24.4%
Cash share of sales, 12 months to Sept 16, 2026, 42 of 172
34.5%
Cash share, prior 12 months, 61 of 177
20.6%
Detached houses, cash share, down from 33.3%
38.9%
Townhouses and condos, cash share, was 39.4%
## The twelve month picture
| | 12 months to Sept 16, 2026 | Prior 12 months |
| ---------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | --------------- |
| Closings at $200,000 and above | 172 | 177 |
| Bought with cash | 42 | 61 |
| Cash share of all sales | 24.4% | 34.5% |
| Bought with a mortgage | 118 | 110 |
| No financing type recorded | 12 | 6 |
| Cash share of sales with a recorded type | 26.3% | 35.7% |
The financing type is the one the listing office recorded when it reported the closing to the MLS. Cash means the buyer closed without a mortgage on the record. Mortgage covers conventional loans in nearly every case, plus a handful of FHA, VA, renovation and private loans. Twelve sales in the current window and six in the prior one carry no entry at all, and this post counts them as not cash. If every one of the twelve unrecorded sales this year had been cash, the share would be 31.4 percent, still below the 34.5 percent of the year before, so the direction holds under either treatment.
## Detached houses lost their cash buyers, townhouses did not
| Segment | Sales, 12 months to Sept 16 | Cash | Cash share | Prior 12 months |
| --------------------------- | --------------------------- | ---- | ---------- | ---------------- |
| Detached houses | 136 | 28 | 20.6% | 33.3%, 48 of 144 |
| Townhouses and condominiums | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 39.4%, 13 of 33 |
| All residential types | 172 | 42 | 24.4% | 34.5%, 61 of 177 |
Nearly the whole decline sits in one segment. Cash bought 48 of the 144 detached houses that closed in the prior twelve months and 28 of the 136 that closed in the twelve months just ended. Townhouses and condominiums barely moved, 13 of 33 and then 14 of 36\. In 2024, the peak year, cash bought half of the 20 attached homes that closed and 56 of the 161 detached houses. Attached homes are a growing share of what trades in Warren, as [the detached and attached split](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-detached-attached-split/) showed two weeks ago, and they are now the segment where a cash offer is most common.
## Where the cash went, by price
| Sale price | Sales, 12 months to Sept 16 | Cash | Cash share | Prior 12 months |
| ------------------------ | --------------------------- | ---- | ---------- | --------------- |
| Under $750,000 | 29 | 7 | 24.1% | 34.1%, 15 of 44 |
| $750,000 to $999,999 | 45 | 7 | 15.6% | 33.3%, 13 of 39 |
| $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 | 57 | 15 | 26.3% | 37.0%, 17 of 46 |
| $1,500,000 to $1,999,999 | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 37.5%, 12 of 32 |
| $2,000,000 and up | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 25.0%, 4 of 16 |
The retreat is concentrated below $1,500,000\. Between $750,000 and $1,000,000 the cash share fell by more than half, from 33.3 percent to 15.6 percent, and the two bands on either side of it each gave up about ten points. Above $1,500,000 nothing changed: 36.0 percent against 37.5 percent in the $1,500,000 to $2,000,000 band, and four of sixteen sales in both windows at $2,000,000 and up. Somerset County's 2026 conforming loan limit is $1,209,750, and above a $1,512,188 purchase price a buyer putting 20 percent down needs a jumbo loan, the line the site drew in [the conforming loan ceiling post](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-conforming-loan-ceiling/). The bands where cash held are the bands where a mortgage means a jumbo for most buyers, and the bands where cash retreated are the ones a conforming loan can reach. Each band is a small sample, and one or two sales move any of these shares by several points.
## How cash buyers behaved
| Measure | Cash, 42 sales | Mortgage, 118 sales | Cash, prior 12, 61 sales | Mortgage, prior 12, 110 sales |
| -------------------------------------- | -------------- | ------------------- | ------------------------ | ----------------------------- |
| Median sale price | $1,290,000 | $1,172,500 | $1,120,000 | $1,100,000 |
| Median days on market | 32 | 22 | 20 | 24 |
| Median percent of last ask | 98.8 | 99.5 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Median percent of original ask | 97.8 | 98.7 | 100.0 | 99.2 |
| Closed at or over ask | 17 of 42 | 56 of 118 | 37 of 61 | 55 of 110 |
| Median days, under contract to closing | 42 | 45 | 43 | 45 |
| Townhouses and condominiums | 14 of 42 | 21 of 118 | 13 of 61 | 20 of 110 |
A year ago the cash buyer was the aggressive one. Thirty seven of 61 cash sales in the prior twelve months, 60.7 percent, closed at or over the asking price, against 50.0 percent of mortgage sales, and the median cash sale paid the full last ask. In the twelve months just ended, 17 of 42 cash sales met or beat ask, 40.5 percent, against 47.5 percent of mortgage sales, and the median cash buyer paid 98.8 percent of the last ask and 97.8 percent of the original one. The homes cash buyers bought had also sat longer, a median 32 days on market against 22 for mortgage buyers, where a year earlier it was 20 against 24\. Fewer cash buyers, and the ones still buying negotiated.
The cash buyer's edge at the closing table is smaller than its reputation. The median cash sale went from under contract to closed in 42 days, the median mortgage sale in 45\. The under contract date is the day the listing was marked under contract in the MLS, which in New Jersey usually follows attorney review, so this measures a firm contract to the closing table rather than offer to closing. A three day gap on the median is real, and it is not the month that cash is often assumed to save.
Cash buyers paid the higher median this year, $1,290,000 against $1,172,500, and the reverse of a year ago, when the two medians sat $20,000 apart. Read that with the price table above: the cash that stayed is in the $1,500,000 and up bands, and the cash that left was in the bands below.
## The longer record
| Year | Sales at $200,000 and above | Cash | Cash share |
| -------------------------- | --------------------------- | ---- | ---------- |
| 2015 | 157 | 28 | 17.8% |
| 2016 | 183 | 27 | 14.8% |
| 2017 | 201 | 42 | 20.9% |
| 2018 | 185 | 37 | 20.0% |
| 2019 | 193 | 33 | 17.1% |
| 2020 | 207 | 38 | 18.4% |
| 2021 | 266 | 40 | 15.0% |
| 2022 | 230 | 46 | 20.0% |
| 2023 | 196 | 60 | 30.6% |
| 2024 | 181 | 66 | 36.5% |
| 2025 | 178 | 53 | 29.8% |
| 2026, through September 16 | 114 | 25 | 21.9% |
From 2015 through 2022 the cash share of Warren sales stayed between 14.8 percent and 20.9 percent. It jumped to 30.6 percent in 2023, a year in which Freddie Mac's weekly 30 year fixed rate never fell below 6.09 percent and peaked at 7.79 percent, rose to 36.5 percent in 2024, and has come down in each year since. The 2026 figure is a partial year. Measured on the same January 1 to September 16 window, the share was 33.1 percent in 2024, 41 of 124 sales, 30.0 percent in 2025, 36 of 120, and 21.9 percent this year, 25 of 114\. Ten of this year's 114 sales carry no financing type. Even if all ten were cash, 2026 would stand at 30.7 percent, level with 2025 rather than below it, which is why the calendar year comparison is printed with that caveat and the twelve month comparison above, where the same treatment moves the share to at most 31.4 percent, is the one to lean on.
### Trailing twelve months, at each quarter end
| Twelve months ending | Sales | Cash | Cash share |
| -------------------- | ----- | ---- | ---------- |
| December 31, 2022 | 230 | 46 | 20.0% |
| March 31, 2023 | 216 | 46 | 21.3% |
| June 30, 2023 | 211 | 52 | 24.6% |
| September 30, 2023 | 208 | 56 | 26.9% |
| December 31, 2023 | 196 | 60 | 30.6% |
| March 31, 2024 | 194 | 59 | 30.4% |
| June 30, 2024 | 187 | 56 | 29.9% |
| September 30, 2024 | 175 | 59 | 33.7% |
| December 31, 2024 | 181 | 66 | 36.5% |
| March 31, 2025 | 177 | 65 | 36.7% |
| June 30, 2025 | 176 | 63 | 35.8% |
| September 30, 2025 | 184 | 63 | 34.2% |
| December 31, 2025 | 178 | 53 | 29.8% |
| March 31, 2026 | 192 | 58 | 30.2% |
| June 30, 2026 | 184 | 49 | 26.6% |
| September 16, 2026 | 172 | 42 | 24.4% |
On a trailing twelve month basis, which smooths out the seasons, the cash share peaked at 36.7 percent in the year ending March 31, 2025, 65 of 177 sales, and has fallen in five of the six quarters since. It is now 12.3 points below the peak and back to about where it stood in the year ending June 30, 2023, when it was 24.6 percent.
## Against the national figure
The National Association of Realtors reported that cash sales were 26 percent of existing home transactions in July 2026, up from 25 percent in June and down from 31 percent a year earlier. Warren's 24.4 percent of all sales, or 26.3 percent of sales with a recorded financing type, sits on top of the national number, and the direction matches: nationally the cash share is five points below a year ago, and in Warren it is ten points below. The two figures are not built the same way. NAR's comes from a monthly survey of its members, and Warren's comes from the financing field on closed MLS records, so treat the comparison as a check on direction rather than a matched measurement.
## My read
This section is the author's opinion, kept apart from the record above.
The 2023 and 2024 cash wave was, in my reading, buyers who could avoid a seven percent mortgage doing exactly that. Many of them were sellers moving within or into Warren with the proceeds of a house behind them, and the 2024 peak in townhouse cash purchases, half of the 20 that closed, fits a downsizer carrying equity out of a detached house. That equity did not go away, which is why the attached cash share is holding near 39 percent while the detached share has fallen back toward its 2015 to 2022 range. The buyers who have returned to the detached market since are the ones who need a mortgage, and the price bands where cash retreated are the bands where a jumbo loan competes with cash on price.
For a Warren seller the practical change is in the offer pile rather than the price. Two years ago one offer in three arrived without a financing contingency and often without an appraisal. Now it is one in four, and in a detached house one in five, and the cash offers that do arrive have been paying a little under ask on the median. A contract with a mortgage contingency is not a weaker contract, but it carries an appraisal, and [the selling guide](https://blog.johnmangini.com/selling-a-home-in-warren/) is the place to see what the record says about pricing to survive one.
The data, and what it does not cover
All figures come from Garden State MLS closed sale records for Warren Township, Somerset County, read September 16, 2026, filtered to exclude superseded listing records. The most recent closing in the record is September 10, 2026, which is the last recorded closing and not the date the record was refreshed. Warren Township is in Somerset County and is not Warren County. Sales under $200,000 are excluded throughout as likely non arms length transfers, the same floor the selling guide and the market tape apply, which is why this post counts 172 closings in the twelve months to September 16 where pages that apply no floor count 173\. The financing type is the entry the listing office made when it reported the closing, and the record does not say whether a cash buyer later placed a mortgage on the property or how large a mortgage buyer's down payment was. Days on market count the current listing only. Percent of ask compares the sale price with the list price in effect at contract, and percent of original ask with the first asking price. Medians in an even count are the midpoint of the two middle sales, and median days are rounded to whole days. These figures cover every residential property type in the MLS, including townhouses and condominiums, not detached houses alone. Attached product sells below detached in Warren, so a detached only median would run higher.
What the record does not settle
Who the cash buyers are. The MLS record identifies the financing, not the buyer, so this post cannot say how many of the 42 cash purchases were owner occupants, builders or investors. Somerset County deed records carry the buyer's name and would settle that, and I did not pull them for this piece. Whether the twelve sales with no financing type were cash or financed. Their median price was $974,500, and one of the twelve was a townhouse or condominium. And whether the 2026 calendar year figure holds at 21.9 percent, since ten of this year's closings are among the unrecorded twelve. The twelve month comparison is the one built to survive that gap.
Figures are deemed reliable but are not warranted. Nothing here is a valuation of any particular property.
Sources
1. Garden State MLS closed sale records for Warren Township, Somerset County, financing type as reported at closing, read September 16, 2026\. [https://www.gsmls.com](https://www.gsmls.com/?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
2. National Association of Realtors, Existing-Home Sales report for July 2026, released August 11, 2026, cash sales 26 percent of transactions. [https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-7-decrease-in-july](https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-7-decrease-in-july?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
3. Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 2023 weekly results, 30 year fixed low of 6.09 percent on February 2, 2023 and high of 7.79 percent on October 26, 2023\. [https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/archive?year=2023](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/archive?year=2023&ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
4. Warren, Local., the detached and attached split, September 2, 2026\.
5. Warren, Local., the conforming loan ceiling and Warren's jumbo share, August 21, 2026\.
6. Warren, Local., the market tape, where the $200,000 floor and the trailing twelve month method are set out.
7. Warren, Local., selling a home in Warren, by the numbers.
Warren housing reference
- [Warren by the Numbers](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-by-the-numbers/)
- [The market, updated monthly](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-real-estate-market/)
- [Warren Housing Index](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-housing-index/)
- [Neighborhoods](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-neighborhoods/)
- [Warren vs nearby towns](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-vs-nearby-towns/)
- [Selling in Warren](https://blog.johnmangini.com/selling-a-home-in-warren/)
- [Report Card archive](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-report-card-archive/)
- [Homes for sale in Warren](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-nj-homes-for-sale/)
Thinking about selling a Warren home?
Get a property specific analysis built from the same Warren sales database behind this article.
[Request a Warren home analysis](mailto:john@nexthomepremier.com?subject=Warren%20home%20analysis) or call [732.236.1087](tel:+17322361087)
Start with [what seven years of Warren data says about selling](https://blog.johnmangini.com/selling-a-home-in-warren/).
John Mangini
Broker / Owner, NextHome Premier
[](https://www.nexthomepremier.com/?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
Warren Township resident and full time broker, licensed in New Jersey since 2002\. Warren, Local. is written from live Garden State MLS data, township records and primary sources. Every figure is traceable to a source listed above.
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