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# The 30 year fixed fell to 7.24 percent, its lowest this month, and the payment on a median Warren home eased $51
- URL: https://blog.johnmangini.com/rates-fall-7-24-warren-payment/
- Published: 2026-10-30T10:16:40.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-30T10:16:46.000Z
- Description: Rates fell to 7.24% on Oct 29. At Warren's $1,175,000 median, P and I is $6,406, $51 less than last week and $955 more than a year ago.
- Author: John Mangini
- Tags: Warren Local, National, Mortgages, #Freddie Mac, Affordability, Warren Housing, #syn-fb, #syn-ig, #syn-li, #syn-gbp, #syn-threads, #syn-nextdoor
AnalysisFreddie Mac survey data applied to Garden State MLS records. Method and sample size are printed with the numbers. [What the labels mean](https://blog.johnmangini.com/editorial-standards/)
The short answer
A Warren buyer putting 20 percent down on the township's twelve month median sale price of $1,175,000 would pay $6,406 a month in principal and interest at this week's Freddie Mac average of 7.24 percent. That is $51 less than at last week's 7.32 percent, $372 more than on August 20, and $955 more than the same purchase a year ago. The 30 year fixed has now fallen two weeks in a row, from 7.40 percent to 7.24 percent, and sits at its lowest level of October.
7.24%
30 year fixed, Oct 29, down 8 basis points
$6,406
Monthly P and I at Warren's $1,175,000 median
−$51
Taken off that payment by this week's decline
+$955
Year over year, $667 of it from the rate
34
Warren contracts signed Aug 21 to Oct 29, against 29 in 2025
[Last week's post](https://blog.johnmangini.com/rates-fall-7-32-warren-payment/) covered the first decline after seven straight increases and a flat week. This week the survey fell by the same 8 basis points again. Two declines have taken back 16 of the 75 basis points the run added between August 20 and October 8\. That is about a fifth of the climb, and two weeks are not a trend.
## What Freddie Mac reported this week
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey released Thursday, October 29, 2026 put the 30 year fixed at 7.24 percent and the 15 year fixed at 6.60 percent, each down 8 basis points. "The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined again this week, reaching its lowest level this month," Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in the release. The October 1 survey was 7.28 percent, so this week's figure is the lowest of the five October surveys and still above every survey from August 20 through September 24\. Freddie Mac said nothing about where rates go next. Neither does this post.
| Survey average | This week | Last week | A year ago |
| -------------- | --------- | --------- | ---------- |
| 30 year fixed | 7.24% | 7.32% | 6.17% |
| 15 year fixed | 6.60% | 6.68% | 5.41% |
The 30 year is up 107 basis points in a year and the 15 year is up 119\. On the $940,000 loan used below, a 15 year at 6.60 percent costs $8,240 a month in principal and interest, $1,834 more than the 30 year, in exchange for retiring the loan in half the time.
The survey tracks conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with excellent credit putting 20 percent down. It is an average, not a quote, and it says nothing about jumbo loans, which price separately. That matters in Warren. The 2026 one unit conforming limit for Somerset County is $1,209,750\. In the twelve months through October 29, 78 of Warren's 167 closings, 47 percent, sold for more than that, and 37 of them, 22 percent, sold for more than $1,512,188, the point where a 20 percent down loan would itself be jumbo. [The August 21 post](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-conforming-loan-ceiling/) has the detail.
## Eleven surveys, one loan
Hold the house still and let only the rate move. On a $940,000 loan, 20 percent down on Warren's current median, here is what each survey since August 20 has produced.
| Survey date | 30 year fixed | Monthly P and I | Change from August 20 |
| ------------ | ------------- | --------------- | --------------------- |
| August 20 | 6.65% | $6,034 | 0 |
| August 27 | 6.66% | $6,041 | +$6 |
| September 3 | 6.71% | $6,072 | +$37 |
| September 10 | 6.76% | $6,103 | +$69 |
| September 17 | 6.95% | $6,222 | +$188 |
| September 24 | 7.03% | $6,273 | +$238 |
| October 1 | 7.28% | $6,432 | +$397 |
| October 8 | 7.40% | $6,508 | +$474 |
| October 15 | 7.40% | $6,508 | +$474 |
| October 22 | 7.32% | $6,457 | +$423 |
| October 29 | 7.24% | $6,406 | +$372 |
The run added 75 basis points and $474 a month to the same loan on the same house. The last two weeks took back 16 basis points and $102 a month, or $1,224 a year. The net since August 20 is 59 basis points and $372 a month, $4,464 a year.
## What it costs at Warren's median, a year apart
Both rows use 20 percent down, a 30 year fixed at the survey average for that week, and principal and interest only. Taxes, insurance and any association fee sit on top, and in Warren the tax line alone is large.
| Window | Median sale price | Loan at 20% down | Survey rate | Monthly P and I |
| ------------------------------------ | ----------------- | ---------------- | ----------- | --------------- |
| October 30, 2024 to October 29, 2025 | $1,116,000 | $892,800 | 6.17% | $5,451 |
| October 30, 2025 to October 29, 2026 | $1,175,000 | $940,000 | 7.24% | $6,406 |
| Change | +$59,000 | +$47,200 | +107 bp | +$955 |
The medians come from Garden State MLS closed sales for Warren Township in the twelve months ending October 29 of each year, 167 sales in the current window and 189 in the prior one, with sales under $200,000 excluded as likely non arms length. The price is up 5.3 percent. The payment is up 17.5 percent. Price the current $1,175,000 median at last year's 6.17 percent and the payment is $5,739, so price added $288 and the rate added the other $667\. Seventy percent of the year over year increase is the rate, against 64 percent in last week's post.
The median moved again. Last week's window put it at $1,182,500\. Rolling the window forward a week dropped the closings of late October 2025 and added the few recorded since October 22, and it now sits at $1,175,000, where it stood two weeks ago. That is why every row in the survey table above is lower than in last week's post. The rate history did not change, the loan did. The year ago median also rose, from $1,100,000 to $1,116,000, which is why the year over year gap narrowed from $1,114 to $955.
## What Warren buyers did through the run
Counting listings that are now sold or under contract by the date they went under contract, here is the same stretch of the fall in each of the last three years.
| Contracts signed | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| ------------------------------------------------------------- | ---- | ---- | ---- |
| August 21 to October 29 | 29 | 29 | 34 |
| Last four weeks, October 2 to October 29 | 12 | 13 | 10 |
| Last week, October 23 to October 29 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Of the August 21 to October 29 total, listed above $1,209,750 | 10 | 13 | 16 |
The two figures still point in different directions. Across the full stretch, 2026 is ahead, 34 contracts against 29 in each earlier year. In the last four weeks, with the survey between 7.24 and 7.40 percent, 2026 is behind, 10 against 13 and 12\. The latest pending date in the record is October 26, so this year's last week row covers four days, not seven, and late reported pendings move counts this small by one or two. Neither figure is a trend. Both of this week's contracts were listed at or below the conforming limit, and 16 of this year's 34 were listed above it, where the Freddie Mac average is not the rate that applies.
As of the latest record, 32 Warren homes are listed for sale at a median ask of $1,512,500, and 26 are under contract. [The Warren market page](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-real-estate-market/) carries the monthly view.
How these figures were calculated
Payments are principal and interest only, 30 year fixed, 20 percent down, no points, no mortgage insurance, no taxes, no insurance, no association fee. Rates are the Freddie Mac weekly survey averages for the stated week and are national averages on conforming loans, not quotes. Your own rate depends on credit, loan size, property type and lender, and I asked no lender for a quote for this post. Warren prices are the median closed sale price for all residential property types in Garden State MLS over the stated twelve month window, with sales under $200,000 excluded. Contracts are counted by the MLS pending date on listings that are now sold or under contract, all residential property types, and the conforming limit split uses the list price. Dollar figures are rounded to the nearest dollar.
These figures cover every residential property type
These figures cover every residential property type in the MLS, including townhouses and condominiums, not detached houses alone. Attached product sells below detached in Warren, so a detached only median would run higher, and so would every payment computed from it. [The detached versus townhouse page](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-detached-vs-townhouse-prices/) has the split.
What I could not verify
Freddie Mac publishes no jumbo series in the weekly survey, so what a Warren buyer above the conforming limit is paying this week is not in this post, and I asked no lender. I did not review the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly applications release for this post, so national application volume is not reported here. The August 20 through October 22 rates in the survey table come from Freddie Mac's weekly releases as reported in earlier posts, and I did not reopen the historical data file this week. The Somerset County conforming limit of $1,209,750 rests on the county tables cited in the August 21 post, since I could not open FHFA's own county file to confirm it. The contract counts leave out any deal that was signed and then fell apart, so the true number of contracts signed is at least as high as shown. The most recent closing in the record is October 27, 2026, and late reported closings and pending dates can move these counts by one or two. This post does not predict where the rate goes next, and nothing in it is a recommendation about when to borrow.
The permanent pages hold the wider context: [Warren by the Numbers](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-by-the-numbers/), [the Warren Housing Index](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-housing-index/) and [how the figures are built](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-data-and-methodology/).
Sources
1. Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates Decline Further to 7.24%, October 29, 2026\. [https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/29/3391637/0/en/mortgage-rates-decline-further-to-7-24.html](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/29/3391637/0/en/mortgage-rates-decline-further-to-7-24.html?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
2. Freddie Mac, the same release on its investor site. [https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-decline-further-724](https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-decline-further-724?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
3. Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, current results and survey definition. [https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
4. Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates Decrease to 7.32%, October 22, 2026\. [https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/22/3386709/0/en/mortgage-rates-decrease-to-7-32.html](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/22/3386709/0/en/mortgage-rates-decrease-to-7-32.html?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
5. Freddie Mac, PMMS historical weekly data, the August 20 to October 15, 2026 weekly series. [https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/docs/historicalweeklydata.xlsx](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/docs/historicalweeklydata.xlsx?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
6. FHFA, Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2026, news release. [https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-announces-conforming-loan-limit-values-for-2026](https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-announces-conforming-loan-limit-values-for-2026?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
7. HSH, 2026 conforming loan limits for New Jersey, Somerset County row. [https://www.hsh.com/ls-nj.html](https://www.hsh.com/ls-nj.html?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
8. Garden State MLS, Warren Township closed sales, October 30, 2025 to October 29, 2026 and the prior twelve months, pending dates August 21 to October 29 in 2024, 2025 and 2026, and current active and under contract listings. [https://www.gsmls.com](https://www.gsmls.com/?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
9. Warren, Local., the 30 year fixed fell to 7.32 percent, October 23, 2026\.
10. Warren, Local., where jumbo starts in Warren, August 21, 2026\.
11. Warren, Local., data and methodology.
What this means in Warren
- [The Warren market](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-real-estate-market/)
- [Warren by the Numbers](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-by-the-numbers/)
- [Warren Housing Index](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-housing-index/)
- [Warren vs nearby towns](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-vs-nearby-towns/)
- [Detached vs townhouse](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-detached-vs-townhouse-prices/)
- [Homes for sale in Warren](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-nj-homes-for-sale/)
John Mangini
Broker / Owner, NextHome Premier
[](https://www.nexthomepremier.com/?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
Warren Township resident and full time broker, licensed in New Jersey since 2002\. Warren, Local. is written from live Garden State MLS data, township records and primary sources. Every figure is traceable to a source listed above.
[732.236.1087](tel:+17322361087) [john@nexthomepremier.com](mailto:john@nexthomepremier.com) [102 Town Center Drive, Warren](https://maps.google.com/?q=102+Town+Center+Drive,+Warren,+NJ+07059&ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
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