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# Mortgage rates crossed 7 percent this week for the first time since January 2025, and five weeks of increases have added $239 a month at Warren's median
- URL: https://blog.johnmangini.com/rates-cross-7-percent-warren-payment/
- Published: 2026-09-25T10:37:42.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-25T10:37:42.000Z
- Description: The 30 year fixed hit 7.03 percent on September 24, the first weekly average above 7 since January 2025. At Warren's $1,177,500 median that is $6,286 a month.
- Author: John Mangini
- Tags: Warren Local, National, Mortgages, Freddie Mac, affordability, Warren Housing, #syn-fb, #syn-ig, #syn-li, #syn-gbp, #syn-threads, #syn-nextdoor
AnalysisComputed from Garden State MLS records. Method and sample size are printed with the numbers. [What the labels mean](https://blog.johnmangini.com/editorial-standards/)
The short answer
Freddie Mac put the 30 year fixed at 7.03 percent on Thursday, September 24, 2026, up from 6.95 percent a week earlier and 6.30 percent a year ago. It is the first weekly average above 7 percent since January 16, 2025, when the survey printed 7.04 percent, and it caps five straight weekly increases that have lifted the rate 38 basis points since August 20\. At Warren Township's twelve month median sale price of $1,177,500, with 20 percent down on a 30 year fixed, principal and interest is $6,286 a month. That is $50 more than last week on the same loan, $239 more than five weeks ago, and $799 more than the same purchase a year ago, when the median was $1,108,000 and the rate was 6.30 percent.
7.03%
30 year fixed, Sept 24
+38 bp
Five straight weekly increases since Aug 20
$6,286
Monthly P and I at Warren's $1,177,500 median
+$239
Added to that payment since August 20
+$799
Year over year, $455 of it from the rate
[Last week's post](https://blog.johnmangini.com/rates-jump-6-95-warren-payment/) called 6.95 percent the highest weekly average since January 30, 2025\. This week clears the level that reading stopped short of. Every weekly survey between January 16, 2025 and September 17, 2026, 87 of them, printed below 7 percent. This one did not.
## What Freddie Mac reported this week
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey released Thursday, September 24, 2026 put the 30 year fixed at 7.03 percent and the 15 year fixed at 6.42 percent. Both moved up, 8 basis points for the 30 year and 16 for the 15 year. Freddie Mac's commentary attributed the market's footing to a solid labor market and an economy growing at a healthy rate, and said nothing about where the rate goes from here. Neither does this post.
| Survey average | This week | Last week | A year ago |
| -------------- | --------- | --------- | ---------- |
| 30 year fixed | 7.03% | 6.95% | 6.30% |
| 15 year fixed | 6.42% | 6.26% | 5.49% |
The 15 year fixed is up 93 basis points in a year against 73 for the 30 year. On the same $942,000 loan used below, a 15 year at 6.42 percent costs $8,164 a month in principal and interest, $1,878 more than the 30 year, in exchange for retiring the loan in half the time.
The survey week runs Thursday through Wednesday, so this reading covers September 17 through September 23, the first full week after the Federal Reserve's quarter point increase on September 16, which [last week's post](https://blog.johnmangini.com/rates-jump-6-95-warren-payment/) covered. Whether this week's move reflects that decision, the data behind it, or something else is not something the survey can tell you, and I am not going to guess.
The survey tracks conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers with excellent credit putting 20 percent down. It is an average of application rates, not a quote, and it says nothing about jumbo loans, which price separately. That matters in Warren. Somerset County's 2026 conforming limit is $1,209,750, and [45.7 percent of the closings in the twelve months through August 20](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-conforming-loan-ceiling/) sold above it. The $942,000 loan below conforms. Many Warren purchases do not.
## Where 7.03 percent sits in the record
| Date | 30 year fixed | Why it matters |
| ------------------ | ------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| January 16, 2025 | 7.04% | The last weekly average above 7 percent before this week |
| September 25, 2025 | 6.30% | A year ago |
| February 26, 2026 | 5.98% | The low of the past twelve months |
| August 20, 2026 | 6.65% | Five weeks ago, the last reading before the current run of increases |
| September 17, 2026 | 6.95% | Last week |
| September 24, 2026 | 7.03% | This week |
Measured against Freddie Mac's own weekly file, this week's average is 73 basis points above a year ago, 105 basis points above the February low, and one basis point under the January 16, 2025 reading. It is the highest since that date, not above it. The 8 basis point weekly move is less than half of last week's 19, which remains the largest one week increase since April 17, 2025.
## What it costs at Warren's median
Here is the same purchase priced twice, a year apart. Both rows use 20 percent down, a 30 year fixed at the survey average for that week, and principal and interest only. Taxes, insurance and any association fee sit on top of these figures, and in Warren the tax line alone is large.
| Window | Median sale price | Loan at 20% down | Survey rate | Monthly P and I |
| ---------------------------------------- | ----------------- | ---------------- | ----------- | --------------- |
| September 26, 2024 to September 25, 2025 | $1,108,000 | $886,400 | 6.30% | $5,487 |
| September 26, 2025 to September 25, 2026 | $1,177,500 | $942,000 | 7.03% | $6,286 |
| Change | +$69,500 | +$55,600 | +73 bp | +$799 |
The medians come from Garden State MLS closed sales for Warren Township in the twelve months ending September 25 of each year, 172 sales in the current window and 178 in the prior one, with sales under $200,000 excluded as likely non arms length. The payment at the median is up 14.6 percent in a year. The price is up 6.3 percent. The rate accounts for the rest.
Split it the way [the August 30 post](https://blog.johnmangini.com/rates-flat-warren-payment-up/) did. Price the current $1,177,500 median at last year's 6.30 percent and the payment is $5,831\. Against last year's $5,487, price added $344\. The remaining $455 is the rate. Fifty seven percent of the year over year increase is rate and 43 percent is price. On August 30 price explained 87 percent of a $469 increase. Last week the rate took the majority for the first time. This week its share grew again.
## Five weeks, one loan
Hold the house still and let only the rate move. On a $942,000 loan, here is what each survey since August 20 has produced.
| Survey date | 30 year fixed | Monthly P and I | Change from August 20 |
| ------------ | ------------- | --------------- | --------------------- |
| August 20 | 6.65% | $6,047 | 0 |
| August 27 | 6.66% | $6,054 | +$7 |
| September 3 | 6.71% | $6,085 | +$38 |
| September 10 | 6.76% | $6,116 | +$69 |
| September 17 | 6.95% | $6,236 | +$189 |
| September 24 | 7.03% | $6,286 | +$239 |
Five weeks ago a buyer at Warren's median with 20 percent down was looking at $6,047 a month in principal and interest. The same buyer, the same house and the same loan now cost $6,286\. That is $239 a month, or $2,868 a year, added with no change in the price of the house. Of the $239, $189 arrived in the last two surveys.
How these payments were calculated
Principal and interest only, 30 year fixed, 20 percent down, no points, no mortgage insurance, no taxes, no insurance, no association fee. Rates are the Freddie Mac weekly survey averages for the stated week and are national averages of application rates on conforming loans, not quotes. Your own rate depends on credit, loan size, property type and lender, and I asked no lender for a quote for this post. Warren prices are the median closed sale price for all residential property types in Garden State MLS over the stated twelve month window, with sales under $200,000 excluded as likely non arms length. Dollar figures are rounded to the nearest dollar.
These figures cover every residential property type
These figures cover every residential property type in the MLS, including townhouses and condominiums, not detached houses alone. Attached product sells below detached in Warren, so a detached only median would run higher, and so would every payment computed from it. [The September 2 post](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-detached-attached-split/) has the split.
## What I could not verify
Freddie Mac publishes no jumbo series in the weekly survey, so what a Warren buyer above the conforming limit is paying this week is not in this post, and I asked no lender. I could not open the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly applications release for the same week before publishing, so application volume is not reported here. The Warren medians are Garden State MLS records and move as late closings are reported. Last week's post put the twelve months through September 18 at 173 sales and a $1,180,000 median. The same window run today holds 174 sales at $1,182,500, because one closing was reported after that post went up. Today's window, through September 25, holds 172 sales at $1,177,500\. The differences change the payment by a few dollars and none of the conclusions. The most recent closing in the record is September 24, 2026.
This post does not predict where the rate goes next, and nothing in it is a recommendation about when to borrow. The permanent pages hold the wider context: [the Warren market](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-real-estate-market/), [Warren by the Numbers](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-by-the-numbers/) and [how the figures are built](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-data-and-methodology/).
Sources
1. Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 24, 2026\. [https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
2. Freddie Mac, PMMS historical weekly data file, read September 25, 2026\. [https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/docs/PMMS\_history.csv](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/docs/PMMS%5Fhistory.csv?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
3. Freddie Mac, PMMS archive. [https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms\_archives](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms%5Farchives?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
4. Freddie Mac, About PMMS, survey week and loan coverage. [https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/about-pmms](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/about-pmms?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
5. FHFA, Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2026, news release, November 25, 2025\. [https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-announces-conforming-loan-limit-values-for-2026](https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-announces-conforming-loan-limit-values-for-2026?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
6. Garden State MLS, Warren Township closed sales, September 26, 2025 to September 25, 2026 and the prior twelve months. [https://www.gsmls.com](https://www.gsmls.com/?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
7. Warren, Local., the 30 year fixed jumped to 6.95 percent, September 18, 2026\.
8. Warren, Local., where jumbo starts in Warren, August 21, 2026\.
9. Warren, Local., data and methodology.
What this means in Warren
- [The Warren market](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-real-estate-market/)
- [Warren by the Numbers](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-by-the-numbers/)
- [Warren Housing Index](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-housing-index/)
- [Warren vs nearby towns](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-vs-nearby-towns/)
- [Detached vs townhouse](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-detached-vs-townhouse-prices/)
- [Homes for sale in Warren](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-nj-homes-for-sale/)
John Mangini
Broker / Owner, NextHome Premier
[](https://www.nexthomepremier.com/?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
Warren Township resident and full time broker, licensed in New Jersey since 2002\. Warren, Local. is written from live Garden State MLS data, township records and primary sources. Every figure is traceable to a source listed above.
[732.236.1087](tel:+17322361087) [john@nexthomepremier.com](mailto:john@nexthomepremier.com) [102 Town Center Drive, Warren](https://maps.google.com/?q=102+Town+Center+Drive,+Warren,+NJ+07059&ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
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