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# The 30 year fixed hit 7.40 percent, a seventh straight weekly increase, and the payment at Warren's median is up $476 a month since August
- URL: https://blog.johnmangini.com/rates-7-40-warren-payment/
- Published: 2026-10-09T13:49:02.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-09T13:49:02.000Z
- Description: The 30 year fixed hit 7.40 percent on October 8, the highest since November 2023. At Warren's $1,180,000 median that is $6,536 a month.
- Author: John Mangini
- Tags: Warren Local, National, Mortgages, Freddie Mac, affordability, Warren Housing, #syn-fb, #syn-ig, #syn-li, #syn-gbp, #syn-threads, #syn-nextdoor
AnalysisFreddie Mac survey data applied to Garden State MLS records. Method and sample size are printed with the numbers. [What the labels mean](https://blog.johnmangini.com/editorial-standards/)
The short answer
Freddie Mac put the 30 year fixed at 7.40 percent on Thursday, October 8, 2026, up from 7.28 percent a week earlier and 6.30 percent a year ago. It is the seventh weekly increase in a row since August 20, when the survey printed 6.65 percent, and the highest weekly average since November 16, 2023, when it was 7.44 percent. At Warren Township's twelve month median sale price of $1,180,000, with 20 percent down on a 30 year fixed, principal and interest is $6,536 a month. That is $77 more than last week on the same loan, $476 more than on August 20, and $1,089 more than the same purchase a year ago.
7.40%
30 year fixed, Oct 8
+75 bp
Seven straight weekly increases since Aug 20
$6,536
Monthly P and I at Warren's $1,180,000 median
+$476
Added to that payment since August 20
+$1,089
Year over year, $693 of it from the rate
[The September 25 post](https://blog.johnmangini.com/rates-cross-7-percent-warren-payment/) covered the first weekly average above 7 percent since January 2025\. Two surveys later the rate is 37 basis points higher again. The October 1 survey added 25 basis points, the largest one week move in this run, and this week added 12 more.
## What Freddie Mac reported this week
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey released Thursday, October 8, 2026 put the 30 year fixed at 7.40 percent and the 15 year fixed at 6.73 percent. Both rose 12 or 13 basis points on the week. Freddie Mac's commentary this week told borrowers to shop around for a rate and said nothing about where rates go next. Neither does this post.
| Survey average | This week | Last week | A year ago |
| -------------- | --------- | --------- | ---------- |
| 30 year fixed | 7.40% | 7.28% | 6.30% |
| 15 year fixed | 6.73% | 6.60% | 5.53% |
The 15 year fixed is up 120 basis points in a year against 110 for the 30 year. On the same $944,000 loan used below, a 15 year at 6.73 percent costs $8,343 a month in principal and interest, $1,807 more than the 30 year, in exchange for retiring the loan in half the time.
The survey tracks conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers with excellent credit putting 20 percent down. It is an average of application rates, not a quote, and it says nothing about jumbo loans, which price separately. That matters in Warren. Somerset County's 2026 conforming limit is $1,209,750\. In the twelve months through October 8, 78 of Warren's 166 closings, 47 percent, sold for more than that, and 38 of them, 23 percent, sold for enough that a 20 percent down loan would itself be jumbo. The $944,000 loan below conforms. Many Warren purchases do not. [The August 21 post](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-conforming-loan-ceiling/) has the detail.
## Where 7.40 percent sits in the record
| Date | 30 year fixed | Why it matters |
| ------------------ | ------------- | ------------------------------------------------------- |
| November 16, 2023 | 7.44% | The last weekly average above this week's |
| November 22, 2023 | 7.29% | The following week, already below 7.40 percent |
| October 9, 2025 | 6.30% | A year ago |
| August 20, 2026 | 6.65% | The last reading before the current run of increases |
| September 24, 2026 | 7.03% | First weekly average above 7 percent since January 2025 |
| October 1, 2026 | 7.28% | Last week, a 25 basis point jump |
| October 8, 2026 | 7.40% | This week |
This week's average is 110 basis points above a year ago and 75 basis points above August 20\. It is the highest weekly average since November 16, 2023, nearly three years, and that is as far as the claim goes. The survey has printed higher averages before that date, so this is not a record.
## What it costs at Warren's median
Here is the same purchase priced twice, a year apart. Both rows use 20 percent down, a 30 year fixed at the survey average for that week, and principal and interest only. Taxes, insurance and any association fee sit on top of these figures, and in Warren the tax line alone is large.
| Window | Median sale price | Loan at 20% down | Survey rate | Monthly P and I |
| ---------------------------------- | ----------------- | ---------------- | ----------- | --------------- |
| October 9, 2024 to October 8, 2025 | $1,100,000 | $880,000 | 6.30% | $5,447 |
| October 9, 2025 to October 8, 2026 | $1,180,000 | $944,000 | 7.40% | $6,536 |
| Change | +$80,000 | +$64,000 | +110 bp | +$1,089 |
The medians come from Garden State MLS closed sales for Warren Township in the twelve months ending October 8 of each year, 166 sales in the current window and 187 in the prior one, with sales under $200,000 excluded as likely non arms length. The payment at the median is up 20.0 percent in a year. The price is up 7.3 percent. The rate accounts for the rest.
Split it the way the earlier posts did. Price the current $1,180,000 median at last year's 6.30 percent and the payment is $5,843\. Against last year's $5,447, price added $396\. The remaining $693 is the rate. Sixty four percent of the year over year increase is rate and 36 percent is price. On August 30 price explained 87 percent of the increase. On September 25 the rate's share was 57 percent.
## Seven weeks, one loan
Hold the house still and let only the rate move. On a $944,000 loan, here is what each survey since August 20 has produced.
| Survey date | 30 year fixed | Monthly P and I | Change from August 20 |
| ------------ | ------------- | --------------- | --------------------- |
| August 20 | 6.65% | $6,060 | 0 |
| August 27 | 6.66% | $6,066 | +$6 |
| September 3 | 6.71% | $6,098 | +$38 |
| September 10 | 6.76% | $6,129 | +$69 |
| September 17 | 6.95% | $6,249 | +$189 |
| September 24 | 7.03% | $6,299 | +$239 |
| October 1 | 7.28% | $6,459 | +$399 |
| October 8 | 7.40% | $6,536 | +$476 |
Seven weeks ago a buyer at Warren's median with 20 percent down was looking at $6,060 a month in principal and interest. The same buyer, the same house and the same loan now cost $6,536\. That is $476 a month, or $5,711 a year, added with no change in the price of the house. Of the $476, $237 arrived in the last two surveys.
How these payments were calculated
Principal and interest only, 30 year fixed, 20 percent down, no points, no mortgage insurance, no taxes, no insurance, no association fee. Rates are the Freddie Mac weekly survey averages for the stated week and are national averages of application rates on conforming loans, not quotes. Your own rate depends on credit, loan size, property type and lender, and I asked no lender for a quote for this post. Warren prices are the median closed sale price for all residential property types in Garden State MLS over the stated twelve month window, with sales under $200,000 excluded as likely non arms length. The loan amount moved from $942,000 in the September 25 post to $944,000 here because the median moved, so the weekly payments in the table above differ by a few dollars from that post's. Dollar figures are rounded to the nearest dollar.
These figures cover every residential property type
These figures cover every residential property type in the MLS, including townhouses and condominiums, not detached houses alone. Attached product sells below detached in Warren, so a detached only median would run higher, and so would every payment computed from it. [The September 2 post](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-detached-attached-split/) has the split.
## What I could not verify
Freddie Mac publishes no jumbo series in the weekly survey, so what a Warren buyer above the conforming limit is paying this week is not in this post, and I asked no lender. I did not review the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly applications release for this post, so application volume is not reported here. The Warren medians are Garden State MLS records and move as late closings are reported. The September 25 post put the twelve months through September 25 at 172 sales and a $1,177,500 median. The same window run today holds 173 sales at $1,175,000\. The difference changes the payment by a few dollars and none of the conclusions. The most recent closing in the record is October 2, 2026, so the current window has no closings from its last six days yet.
This post does not predict where the rate goes next, and nothing in it is a recommendation about when to borrow. The permanent pages hold the wider context: [the Warren market](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-real-estate-market/), [Warren by the Numbers](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-by-the-numbers/) and [how the figures are built](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-data-and-methodology/).
Sources
1. Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates Average 7.40%, October 8, 2026\. [https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-740](https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-740?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
2. Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates Average 7.28%, October 1, 2026\. [https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-728](https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-728?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
3. Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, current results. [https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
4. Freddie Mac, weekly survey releases, August 27 to September 24, 2026\. [https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases](https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
5. Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates Trend Down, November 16, 2023\. [https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-trend-down-1](https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-trend-down-1?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
6. Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates Continue to Slide Down, November 22, 2023\. [https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-continue-slide-down-1](https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-continue-slide-down-1?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
7. Freddie Mac, PMMS archive. [https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms\_archives](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms%5Farchives?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
8. FHFA, Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2026, news release. [https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-announces-conforming-loan-limit-values-for-2026](https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/fhfa-announces-conforming-loan-limit-values-for-2026?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
9. Garden State MLS, Warren Township closed sales, October 9, 2025 to October 8, 2026 and the prior twelve months. [https://www.gsmls.com](https://www.gsmls.com/?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
10. Warren, Local., mortgage rates crossed 7 percent, September 25, 2026\.
11. Warren, Local., where jumbo starts in Warren, August 21, 2026\.
12. Warren, Local., data and methodology.
What this means in Warren
- [The Warren market](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-real-estate-market/)
- [Warren by the Numbers](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-by-the-numbers/)
- [Warren Housing Index](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-housing-index/)
- [Warren vs nearby towns](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-vs-nearby-towns/)
- [Detached vs townhouse](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-detached-vs-townhouse-prices/)
- [Homes for sale in Warren](https://blog.johnmangini.com/warren-nj-homes-for-sale/)
John Mangini
Broker / Owner, NextHome Premier
[](https://www.nexthomepremier.com/?ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
Warren Township resident and full time broker, licensed in New Jersey since 2002\. Warren, Local. is written from live Garden State MLS data, township records and primary sources. Every figure is traceable to a source listed above.
[732.236.1087](tel:+17322361087) [john@nexthomepremier.com](mailto:john@nexthomepremier.com) [102 Town Center Drive, Warren](https://maps.google.com/?q=102+Town+Center+Drive,+Warren,+NJ+07059&ref=blog.johnmangini.com)
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